Totally Cooked: Episode 29 – Whatever you do, DON’T call it a Godzilla El Niño

What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and why does it have such a powerful influence on weather and climate in Australia and around the world?

In this episode of Totally Cooked: The Climate & Weather Podcast, hosts Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Iain Strachan unpack ENSO, the natural climate cycle behind El Niño and La Niña.

Joined by climate scientists Mandy Freund from the University of Melbourne and Shayne McGregor from Monash University, we explore how changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures, trade winds and atmospheric pressure can shift rainfall, heat, drought and flood risks across the globe. We also trace the history of ENSO research and explain how scientists observe and forecast its changing phases.

With a strong El Niño developing in 2026, the team cuts through the “super El Niño” headlines to examine what forecasts can tell us about the months ahead. 

They also consider how ENSO interacts with the Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode and Madden–Julian Oscillation, and what climate change means for the impacts of future El Niño and La Niña events.

Iain records Totally Cooked on the lands of the Bunurong People of the Kulin Nation. Sarah records Totally Cooked on the lands of the Ngunnawal and Ngambri people. We pay our respects to Elders past, present and emerging and recognise their unique and continuing connection to the land, skies, waters, plants and animals.

Show Notes

In this episode, we look at:

• What ENSO really is — a coupled ocean–atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific, not just “warm water.”
• El Niño vs La Niña: what changes in the ocean and atmosphere, and why La Niña often (but not always) follows El Niño.
• What sets an event off — westerly wind bursts, the Bjerknes feedback, and the ocean/atmosphere “chicken-and-egg.”
• How ENSO is monitored: ocean buoys and satellites, and why the Bureau (0.8°C) and the US (0.5°C) declare events on different thresholds.
• The building blocks — trade winds, the Walker circulation, sea surface temperatures, upwelling and the thermocline.
• A quick history: Peruvian fishermen and the name “El Niño,” Gilbert Walker’s Southern Oscillation, and Jacob Bjerknes tying the two together.
• The 1982–83 El Niño, and how volcanic haze skewed satellite readings and hid its onset.
• The current strong El Niño — an event landing on an already-warmed climate, and what the models do and don’t agree on.
• The autumn “predictability barrier,” why pre-winter forecasts are shaky, and past events that fizzled out.
• Why “Godzilla/Monster El Niño” headlines mislead — and why a strong event doesn’t guarantee drought in Australia.
• ENSO and climate change: where the science is confident and where big uncertainties remain.
• The other drivers ENSO interacts with — the Indian Ocean Dipole (and its role in Black Summer), the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode.

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This episode will be released and available to stream and download on Friday 28th August, 2026.

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Because it’s time to feel empowered, not overwhelmed. Totally Cooked is a science-backed, straight-talking podcast about weather, climate change, and what it all means for life on Earth – especially here in Australia.

Hosted by climate scientist Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and science communicator Iain Strachan, Totally Cooked breaks down how human activity is changing the Earth’s systems—from our skies to our seas—and what we can do about it.

From greenhouse gases to fire weather, supercomputers to Antarctic ice cores, this is climate science without the jargon, and where no subject is too complex or controversial.

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