Strategic wind farms: How to balance weather resources & energy demand

Carefully choosing the location of wind farms could help to balance electricity supply and demand during hot and cold days in southeast Australia, but more research is needed to better understand the complex relationship between weather, wind and energy.

Together with hydroelectricity and solar, wind power is becoming an important source of renewable energy as Australia continues the transition to net zero. One area chosen for offshore wind farm development is the Bass Strait, along the coast of Gippsland in eastern Victoria. 

Seeking to better understand the availability and consistency of our wind resources in this part of the country, researchers at the ARC Centre of Excellence in 21st Century Weather have examined nearly 30 years of weather data. 

Using machine learning to adjust for changes in the electricity system and energy use over that time, they found that strong wind energy is often available in offshore areas during both hot and cold days of high energy demand. Over land, in areas with complex terrain, wind energy is stronger on cold high-demand days, but weaker on hot days of high demand. 

Led by Dr Claire Vincent of the University of Melbourne, the research found that the wind resource in southeast Australia differs between high-demand hot and cold days. 

“On hot, high-demand days, wind power tends to be lower in eastern Victoria and southeast New South Wales, but higher in western Victoria,” Dr Vincent said.

“This pattern is nearly the opposite on cold high-demand days. 

“These findings suggest that carefully placing wind farms could help meet the highest electricity demand during summer and winter.”

Published in the journal Wind Energy Science, the research highlights the need to better understand the connection between large-scale and local weather processes, wind energy and electricity demand.

According to the findings, on high-demand hot days, the main weather pattern is a high-pressure system in the Tasman Sea, which brings warm winds from the north. This can lead to good wind conditions in southeast Australia and the Gippsland offshore area. 

On hot days, this region also experiences the strongest winds on average in the late afternoon, which matches with the time of day when the electricity demand is high. On cold days, though, stronger or weaker winds are equally likely at any time of day.

The position of the high-pressure system can affect the wind, especially around the Bass Strait, where local winds can change depending on the location of the high-pressure system. 

Understanding how the landscape and local winds interact with these weather systems could help us predict wind power more accurately in the future.

For high-demand cold days, there are two main weather patterns involved. One is a cold air outbreak, which brings strong winds to the Gippsland region, and the other is a high-pressure system over Victoria, which results in lighter winds. These two patterns lead to very different wind conditions.

“In Australia, about 40% of residential energy use goes to heating and cooling,” Dr Vincent said.

“While some of this comes from gas or wood, most of it is electric. This means the same weather systems that affect wind power also influence electricity demand.

“For instance, cold weather events are often linked to high heating demand, and these events can also impact wind energy availability.

Wind power is an example of Australia’s abundant weather resources, which will be crucial in helping us to decarbonise. 

More research is needed to understand the distribution and availability of our weather resources, and how they will change in a warming climate. 

“The biggest concern for the future energy system is when there is high electricity demand but low wind power, such as on hot days with little wind,” Dr Vincent said.

“These situations could create challenges for the power grid, especially if they happen at the same time as other weather-related hazards, like fires or heavy rainfall. 

“To build a strong renewable energy system, we need to carefully study energy demand, different weather scenarios and local wind patterns.”

To read the research in full, please visit: https://wes.copernicus.org/articles/10/2435/2025/

This article was written using a combination of human and artificial intelligence