Totally Cooked: Research Special – Measuring the impacts of new fossil fuel projects

Australia’s fossil fuel industry has long argued that its projects are “too small to matter” when it comes to global climate change. But new research led by 21st Century Weather proves otherwise. 

Using a robust scientific method adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), our researchers have quantified how much additional global warming will be caused by emissions from the Scarborough gas project, a major new gas development approved off the coast of Western Australia. The study shows that no fossil fuel project is too small to make a measurable difference to the planet’s climate.

This episode of Totally Cooked: The Climate & Weather Podcast breaks down what the numbers really mean. Hosts Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Iain Strachan speak with contributing authors Andrew King and Georgy Falster about the study’s findings: 876 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions, 0.00039 °C of additional global warming, and real-world consequences for people and ecosystems. We explore how heatwaves, coral bleaching, and mortality risks increase, and why this work fundamentally shifts how fossil fuel projects should be assessed in Australia and around the world.

With governments setting ambitious net zero targets, the Scarborough case shows how new gas projects undermine climate goals. This groundbreaking research gives policymakers, regulators, and communities the tools to hold companies accountable for the warming their projects cause. Tune in to understand the science, the stakes, and the path forward for climate action in Australia.

Show Notes

In this episode, we look at:

• How fossil fuel companies have long claimed their projects are “too small to matter”, and why new science proves otherwise
• The Scarborough gas project as a case study: 876 million tonnes of CO₂ and its measurable impact on global warming
• How the Transient Climate Response to CO₂ Emissions (TCRE) links project-level emissions to additional global temperature rise
• Why this is a turning point for climate accountability, with impacts that can no longer be dismissed as “negligible”
• The heat toll: 484 additional heat-related deaths projected in Europe and over half a million people exposed to unprecedented extreme heat
• Human habitability under threat: 356,000 people pushed outside the safe climate niche
• Coral reefs in the firing line: an estimated 16 million corals lost in each new mass bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef
• How this work connects emissions to impacts through a clear, simple method that courts, governments and communities can use
• Why carbon capture and storage can’t plug the gap, and why “not emitting” is far more effective
• How this research could shape legal challenges, environmental assessments and climate policy worldwide
• Why every tonne counts: one project’s emissions are enough to harm ecosystems, threaten lives, and undermine Australia’s net zero targets

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Timestamps

00:00 – Cold open, “drop in the ocean”
Sarah and Iain tee up the myth of ‘negligible’ fossil fuel projects.

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00:29 – Setting the scene
The hosts introduce the groundbreaking research and frame the episode.

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00:59 – Guest intros
Meet Andrew King and Georgy Falster, with Sarah wearing her “real science” hat.

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01:53 – What this research does
Georgy explains the core idea: linking project emissions to real-world impacts.

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04:41 – LNG 101
A primer on liquefied natural gas, methane, and why it’s not “clean energy.”

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06:02 – A long-lived project
Scarborough’s 30-year timeline versus Australia’s 2035 and 2050 targets.

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06:32 – The net zero contradiction
Andrew on why approving new gas projects is at odds with climate goals.

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09:55 – How the idea began
Sarah explains how legal gaps inspired Nerilie Abram to find a new method.

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11:50 – Legal challenges
The context: ACF and Doctors for the Environment cases against Scarborough.

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13:15 – The number: 0.00039°C
Andrew explains how 876 Mt of CO₂ translates into additional global warming.

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14:41 – TCRE explained
The constant relationship between cumulative emissions and warming.

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16:36 – Attribution or something new?
How this extends classical attribution science.

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19:51 – Why this works now
The evidence base for climate impacts has grown dramatically.

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22:51 – What’s next: the tool
Plans for a public emissions-to-impacts calculator.

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24:12 – Naming banter
“Stuffedometer” and other contenders.

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24:41 – Heat-related mortality
Sarah explains how warming from Scarborough translates into heat deaths.

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25:10 – Europe’s data advantage
Why this impact analysis focused on European heat deaths.

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29:25 – Coral reef impacts
Georgy explains projected bleaching losses on the Great Barrier Reef.

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32:12 – 16 million corals
The shocking scale of loss per bleaching event.

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34:58 – Human climate niche
How many people will be pushed into unsafe heat.

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38:22 – Carbon budgets and magical thinking
Australia’s targets versus fossil expansion.

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41:11 – CCS explained
Andrew breaks down the technology gap.

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45:27 – Why CCS won’t save Scarborough
Georgy on the limits and failures of large-scale storage.

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48:06 – Why this research matters
Sarah on accountability, transparency and impact.

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49:26 – Legal and policy potential
Andrew on how governments and courts could use the method.

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50:50 – Global adoption
Georgy on why this approach could spread internationally.

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53:14 – Not just Woodside
The method applies to every fossil fuel project, not just Scarborough.

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54:40 – Hope and political will
A discussion of what needs to change to meet climate targets.

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56:28 – Underestimated impacts
Andrew highlights the gaps in impact data and global equity concerns.

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58:16 – Closing thoughts
Hope, realism, and pushing for accountability.

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58:44 – Outro
Next week’s episode preview: Australia’s weather resources and climate psychology.

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Why listen to Totally Cooked?

Because it’s time to feel empowered, not overwhelmed. Totally Cooked is a science-backed, straight-talking podcast about weather, climate change, and what it all means for life on Earth – especially here in Australia.

Hosted by climate scientist Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and science communicator Iain Strachan, Totally Cooked breaks down how human activity is changing the Earth’s systems—from our skies to our seas—and what we can do about it.

From greenhouse gases to fire weather, supercomputers to Antarctic ice cores, this is climate science without the jargon, and where no subject is too complex or controversial.

Totally Cooked is for anyone who wants to understand the science of climate change—without needing a PhD. Whether you’re a high school student, policy maker, journalist, teacher, concerned citizen or just a little climate-curious, this podcast will give you the tools to think clearly and act confidently.

• Cut through the noise with clear, honest science.
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• Learn how climate change impacts real-world weather;
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