Totally Cooked: Episode 10 – How will an ice-free Arctic change our planet? With Dr Zoé Koenig
In this episode, we explore what happens if and when the Arctic becomes ice-free during the northern summer – from global weather disruptions to sea level changes, ecosystem collapse, and the geopolitical scramble it’s triggering.
Our special guest, Dr Zoé Koenig from University of Tromsø – The Arctic University of Norway, joins us to unpack the science, share her frontline experience in polar research, and explain that what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic.
Pack your survival suit and a rifle, but let’s try not to shoot the bear.
Show Notes
In this episode, we look at:
- What the Arctic actually is, and how it differs from Antarctica
- Sea ice versus land ice, and why only one raises sea levels when it melts
- The seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice, from September lows to spring highs
- How satellites measure ice extent, and the challenges of tracking thickness and volume
- The albedo effect and Arctic amplification: why the region is warming 3–4x faster than the global average
- Record lows, multi-year ice loss, and the prospect of an ice-free summer Arctic by 2050
- Consequences for global systems: ocean circulation, the jet stream, extreme weather, and ecosystems
- Impacts on local communities, from Indigenous livelihoods to polar bears adapting their diets
- The realities of Arctic fieldwork: survival training, polar bear safety, and life on icebreakers
- Gender and equity challenges in polar research, and how the culture is changing
- Coping with the scale and speed of Arctic change – where science sees adaptation, risk, and still some hope
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Timestamps
00:00 – Cold open, the “North Pole” gag
Sarah and Iain tee up the Arctic theme with some festive silliness.
00:29 – List checking, heading north
Setting up the premise, “to check the extent of Arctic sea ice.”
00:58 – Host intros and show setup
Who Sarah and Iain are, what Totally Cooked is about.
01:20 – Meet Dr Zoé Koenig
Oceanographer from Tromsø, focus on ice–ocean dynamics.
01:42 – “I was at sea last week”
Why Zoe was at sea, where, and how teaching fits in.
02:12 – Student cruises in the fjords
Designing questions, six days on the water, Bachelor level fieldwork.
03:12 – How often do Arctic cruises run
Long expeditions, logistics and cost realities.
03:39 – Two months on Polarstern
Sailing dates, life aboard a German icebreaker.
04:07 – Where Arctic voyages depart
From Alaska to Svalbard, shifting research focus.
04:35 – Svalbard 101
Flights, unusual governance, and why it’s “closest” to Tromsø.
06:01 – Polar bears and safety
Rifles, safe zones, and field protocols in bear country.
07:23 – How often do you see bears
Watch systems, close vs far encounters.
08:17 – “Don’t shoot the bear”
Planning culture, a running joke with a serious point.
09:13 – What and where is the Arctic
An ocean surrounded by land with narrow connections.
11:09 – Sea ice vs land ice
Why the distinction matters for science and impacts.
12:08 – What “sea ice extent” really means
Typical thickness and what’s counted.
13:32 – Seasons of sea ice
Why the minimum is in September, maximum in late March or April.
14:29 – How we measure extent
Satellites, daily maps, and what they do well.
15:25 – Why volume matters
Beyond extent, a quick aside to “Ice Ice Maybe.”
16:26 – Thinning and losing multi-year ice
Retreat in summer, weaker winter recovery.
17:53 – Measuring thickness is hard
CryoSat and isostasy, snow complicates density.
19:14 – Albedo explained
Light vs dark surfaces, how reflectivity drives feedbacks.
21:12 – Positive feedbacks
Less ice means more heat absorbed, which means less ice.
23:38 – Arctic amplification
Why the Arctic warms more than the global average.
25:35 – Land, polar amplification, circulation
Northern land masses and constrained systems.
26:05 – Recent minima and winters
Low summers, low winters, and no clear recovery.
27:04 – Ice-free summer Arctic
Likely timing, scenarios, and uncertainty ranges.
27:33 – Before the industrial era
What paleo records and Bear Island stories suggest.
29:30 – Sea-ice cores vs glacier cores
Short records for sea ice, deep time from ice sheets.
31:44 – Why drill sea ice at all
Biology, gas exchange, and system processes.
33:09 – Removing the lid
Open water, mixing, freshwater caps and stratification.
35:08 – Circulation links
Implications for deep convection and global overturning.
36:08 – Sea level rise clarified
Sea ice melt doesn’t raise sea level, land ice does.
37:05 – Greenland’s glaciers
How they’re tracking and why it matters.
38:02 – Permafrost, rivers, sediments
Freshwater and particles changing ocean properties.
39:02 – Weather angle
Boundary layer, clouds and fog when ice retreats.
40:29 – Melt ponds and floes
Why summer fog is so common in the pack.
41:31 – Storms and a weaker polar vortex
Atlantic systems reaching further into the Arctic.
42:29 – Jet stream and teleconnections
Change one part of the system, affect the rest.
43:56 – ENSO’s far-field fingerprints
Tropics influencing North Atlantic and Barents winds.
44:54 – Ecosystems and predators
Polar bears adapting behavior as hunting gets harder.
46:50 – Human–wildlife tension
Bears near towns, reindeer hunting, safety questions.
47:49 – Indigenous impacts
Greenland sea-ice access, fishing routes, daily life.
49:12 – Zoe’s path into polar science
From sailing as a kid to Arctic research.
51:07 – Luck, work and collaboration
Careers, partnerships, and timing.
52:06 – Field harassment realities
How culture is changing and what helps.
55:04 – Trust contacts and leadership
Reporting channels and why leadership matters.
56:35 – Gender balance on deck
Where we are, and where gaps remain.
59:25 – Culture on expeditions
Who leads, who’s included, and speaking up.
1:00:24 – Field prep
Medical checks, survival suits, and the ice-water dunk.
1:01:49 – Training at −20°C
Annual rifle accreditation and when it’s used.
1:02:47 – Not everyone needs fieldwork
Complementary roles between lab, models and field.
1:04:14 – Worst day in the field
A tripod near-miss, what went wrong, what changed.
1:08:56 – Why it’s worth it
Problem-solving, Arctic light, moments of awe.
1:10:51 – Life on board without phones
Conversations, community, and focus.
1:12:14 – Can we reverse the trend
Adapt now, mitigation still matters.
1:14:09 – Coping with change
Framing challenges without despair.
1:15:31 – Common misconceptions
Sea level, land at the North Pole, north vs south.
1:16:01 – Penguins and polar bears
They’ve never met, and who’d win if they did.
1:16:31 – Closing and next time
Teaser: Weather as a resource, join us next episode.
Further Reading
AMAP (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme). (n.d.). AMAP: Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme. Retrieved from https://www.amap.no
Arctic Centre – University of Lapland. (n.d.). Arctic Centre – University of Lapland. Retrieved from https://www.arcticcentre.org
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). (n.d.). Copernicus Climate Change Service. Retrieved from https://climate.copernicus.eu
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
NASA Earth Observatory. (n.d.). Arctic sea ice. Retrieved from https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (2024). Arctic report card 2024: Full report. Retrieved from https://arctic.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/ArcticReportCard_full_report2024.pdf
National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). (n.d.). National Snow and Ice Data Center. Retrieved from https://nsidc.org
The Cryosphere. (n.d.). Arctic sea ice decline: A review of feedbacks and projections. The Cryosphere. Retrieved from https://tc.copernicus.org
Wilson Center, Polar Institute. (2020). The new Arctic geopolitics (Polar Perspectives No. 11). Retrieved from https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/uploads/documents/Polar%20Perspectives%20No.%2011_NewArcticPeacefulCompetition.pdf
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Because it’s time to feel empowered, not overwhelmed. Totally Cooked is a science-backed, straight-talking podcast about weather, climate change, and what it all means for life on Earth – especially here in Australia.
Hosted by climate scientist Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and science communicator Iain Strachan, Totally Cooked breaks down how human activity is changing the Earth’s systems—from our skies to our seas—and what we can do about it.
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Meet the team
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick
CO-HOST
A Professor of Climate Science at the Australian National University, Sarah is an expert on extreme heat and a leading voice in Australian climate research and science communication.
Iain Strachan
CO-HOST / PRODUCER
Iain is a former journalist turned science communicator with a passion for telling big, complicated stories in clear, human ways.
Zach White
PRODUCER/ EDITOR
Zach creates video and social media content to amplify scientific research, with a background in design, AI education, and agency work for major brands.